Seasonal Strategy’s quarterly newsletter

Seasonal Strategy’s quarterly newsletter

Click on dates to download PDFs

Current issue:

SUMMER 2025

Q2: In like a lion, out like a lamb
The Newark nightmare and our aging infrastructure
The case for infrastructure investing

Archive of past 12 issues:

SPRING 2025

How we proceed

What Seasonal Strategy does for you

And all of that is worth ...?

WINTER 2025

The economic idiocy ahead

Trump and your portfolio

FALL 2024

Warren Buffett — 94 and full of energy

How catastrophe can make your portfolio safer

Cat bonds: A paired-investment idea

SUMMER 2024

AI mania reaches loony proportions. Just look at Nvidia.

Retire Overseas: Cheaper, calmer, safer, healthier, more fun

Five cities to start your retirement journey

SPRING 2024

Record momentum leaves value investing in the dust

The Roth Individual 401k: Handy, and now available at Schwab

The new 529-to-Roth transfer opportunity

WINTER 2024

RIP Charlie Munger

2024: Crowded trades and contrarian trades

FALL 2023

“Higher for longer”: The right thing to do, but it will bring pain

Niche assets: the next step in our portfolio diversification

Lots going on: Schwab, paperless, Reno

SUMMER 2023

Finally: A real return to safe, short-term investments

Paperless quarterly reports are coming from Seasonal Strategy

Seasonal Strategy is moving

SPRING 2023

The biggest scam of all

Schwab's financial position is strong

Four years later, the Schwab/TD Ameritrade integration is finally upon us

WINTER 2023

2023: Look abroad, seek yield, continue to diversify

For an unpredictable 2023, an alternative fund of alternatives

Top financial regrets — and what we can learn from them

FALL 2022

Don’t fight the Fed. It wants asset prices lower.

Inflation looks scary. TIPS investors don’t think so.

Social Security: Delying makes dollars — and sense

SUMMER 2022

The Fed is behind the curve. Hopelesslely far behind.

Private credit a safe haven and effective diversifier

A view on the Fed‘s resolve

The Conservative Strategist has been continuously published quarterly for 30 years. Select older issues are available upon request.

Seasonal Strategy is an investment adviser licensed with, and subject to examination by, the Nevada Secretary of State.

ADV Part II

Privacy Policy

Risk Disclaimer

© 2025 Seasonal Strategy All rights reserved

Privacy Policy

Seasonal Strategy requires that you provide current and accurate financial and personal information. Seasonal Strategy will protect the information you have provided in a manner that is safe, secure and professional. Seasonal Strategy is committed to protecting your privacy and to safeguarding that information.

Safeguarding Customer Documents

Seasonal Strategy collects non-public customer data in checklists, forms, in written notations, and in documentation provided by clients for evaluation, registration, and licensing or related consulting services. Internal lists of such data may be created.

During regular business hours access to customer records is monitored so that only the principal, Robert Gavrich, has access to the files. During non-business hours, sensitive current customer records are secure: in addition to restricted access to the office via lobby security and keyed-only access, hard files within the office are kept in locked, separately-keyed cabinets and electronic records are password protected on a hard-drive that is also secured against physical removal. Back-up electronic data and archived records may be kept in a secure off-site location, available only to the principal or his agents, in case of an emergency. Archived records may be viewed by clients with adequate notice for their retrieval. Only individuals so authorized can obtain or seek to obtain personal and financial customer information without illegal access and force.

Sharing Nonpublic Personal and Financial Information

Seasonal Strategy is committed to the protection and privacy of its customers’ and consumers’ personal and financial information. Seasonal Strategy will not share such information with any affiliated or nonaffiliated third party except:

When necessary to complete a transaction in a customer account, such as with the clearing firm or account custodians;

When required to maintain or service a customer account;

To resolve customer disputes or inquiries;

With persons acting in a fiduciary or representative capacity on behalf of the customer;

With rating agencies, persons assessing compliance with industry standards, or to the attorneys, accountants and auditors of the firm;

In connection with a sale or merger of Seasonal Strategy’s business;

To protect against or prevent actual or potential fraud, identity theft, unauthorized transactions, claims or other liability;

To comply with federal, state or local laws, rules and other applicable legal requirements;

In connection with a written agreement to provide investment management or advisory services when the information is released for the sole purpose of providing the products or services covered by the agreement;

In any circumstances with the customer’s instruction or consent; or

Pursuant to any other exceptions enumerated in the California Information Privacy Act.

Opt-Out Provisions

It is not a policy of Seasonal Strategy to share nonpublic personal and financial information with affiliated or unaffiliated third parties except under the circumstances noted above. Since sharing under the circumstances noted above is necessary to service customer accounts or is mandated by law, there are no allowances made for clients to opt out.

Risk Disclaimer

The material on this website has been prepared by Seasonal Strategy. This website is for information and illustrative purposes only and does not purport to show actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only and are subject to change without notice. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate its ability to invest for a long term especially during periods of a market downturn. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those discussed, if any.

This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. Seasonal Strategy does not purport to provide tax, accounting, actuarial, recordkeeping, legal, or any related services. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. Seasonal Strategy shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. You should consult your own advisors with respect to these areas. By accepting this material, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing.

No part of this website may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Seasonal Strategy.